Malcolm Ocean's roamblog

June 14th, 2021

edited 2021-06-14 · open in Roam
  • thinking about NNTD and some sense in which it only sorta tells you what will work... mostly tells you what won't work
    • that's not necessarily true on balance but it's an interesting frame
        • ah yeah, and that page title sentence is almost wiser than it knows - it's not "what works and doesn't work, in context", it's "what works in context, and what doesn't work [ever]"
        • the "ever" bit is interesting, like obviously someone could disprove that with a single example, but part of what's going on here is that if I saw something purporting to be such an example, I'd have a high prior that what's going on is actually some kind of compartmentalization/layering/naive trust
        • could of course be wrong about that but yeah
        • and some things are more thoroughly written off as "not gonna work" by NNTD than others
          • improbable and impossible-[according to this model] are different