nth-order effects of covid
- found myself wanting to structure effects of covid something like this:
(...no guarantees this classification is useful!)- 1 - effects of disease on people
- 1.1 - effects of caring for sick people
- 1.2 - effects of people dying
- 1.3 - effects of all of that on the medical system
- 2 - effects of preventative measures
- 2.1 - effects of WFH
- 2.2 - effects of event cancellation
- 2.3 -
- 3 - social effects of peoples' experience of what others do
- 3.1 - what leaders do
- 3.2 - what their friends do
- unsorted tweets
- these tweets articulate a number of pretty intense predictions of potential fallout from covid-19
- I would be very surprised if all 10 of these happened, but I would also be surprised if zero of them happened
- list
- 1. Iconic companies will fail (beyond just the financial and housing industries).
- 2. Apple & Amazon will become 5 x larger, if not broken up by the US government. APL = surplus cash AMA = logistics inc demand.
- 3. Multiple countries will have revolutions due to the death of public officials and financial instability
- 4. UBI will be tested and be made law sometime in the future in the US.
- 5. Regional wars will break out, perhaps even larger scale as resources become scarce in 12-18 months
- 6. Bernie, Biden, or Trump will contract the disease and one of them will die, swaying the US election in a major way.
- 7. Several Tech Unicorns will be born out of the chaos. Perhaps
- 8. Red states will be hit harder with % of deaths of the elderly due to less social quarantine, shifting some red states to blue states in the future.
- 9. A massive transfer of wealth from the baby boomers that pass as a result of the disease to their children.
- 10. US & China trade war/overall tensions heighten. This leads to some crazy shit.
- re panic-buying on a large scale - note that this does not mean that demand for masks is actually equal to (100M/day)×(number of days they've been demanded)... it will likely be very easy to overshoot and end up with 100× as many masks as we need. good problem, to be clear, just pointing at how once demand is able to be satisfied, it stops calling every day
- animal behavior